As the world moves towards its ambitious climate friendly goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, transport sector, which contributes between 15% to 25% of total global GHG emissions according to varying estimates, will be closely monitored. Transition from ICE vehicles to Electric Vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is imperative in this regard.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its recently released report ‘Global EV Outlook 2025’ estimated that globally, EV sales crossed 17 million in 2024, reaching a sales share of more than 20% of total automotives sold. With China leading the way amounting to half of global electric sales, and new markets emerging in Asia and Latin America, electric cars are expected to exceed a share of 40% of total share by 2030 under current policy settings.
Along with growth in EV sales, the demand for batteries have also gone up, accounting for 950GWh in 2024. The battery makes up about 40% of an EV’s total cost, with lithium as the main element in most batteries worldwide. A Lithium-ion battery (LIB) is made up of a graphite anode, with lithium salt as the electrolyte and a cathode consisting of Lithium compounded with Nickel, Cobalt or Manganese. Consequently, conventional lithium-ion batteries are commonly referred to as NMC batteries, denoting their composition of nickel, manganese, and cobalt.
Supply Chain imbalances of LIBs:
While reserves of these minerals are present in a broad geography of Latin America, Australia, Africa and others, the down stream supply chain of processing and battery manufacturing is heavily skewed in favour of China.
EY research shows China’s hold over processing of EV components encompasses 80-90% of global share. At the same time with giants like CATL, China houses over 70-80% of global LIB manufacturing. Over the years these giants have innovated and reduced the use of Nickel and Cobalt in LIBs and produced Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries on a large scale.
NMC batteries, which are still prevalent in the US and Europe provide an energy density advantage over the LFP batteries, which are in turn cheaper and are widely used in China. The energy density of LFP battery packs is about one-fifth lower by mass (Wh/kg) and one-third lower by volume (Wh/L) than that of NMC battery packs. This advantage, however, is partly offset by LFP’s capability to reach 100% state of charge when required without significant degradation, whereas NMC batteries are typically limited to 80% to preserve long-term performance. The NMC batteries are preferred for operating in colder climates and over long ranges. Whereas enhanced performance level of LFP batteries and the given cost advantages have made them popular in the mass markets.
Global Lithium Constraints:
Primarily Lithium, often referred as ‘white gold’ is extracted from two sources across the globe. Firstly, there are minerals like spodumene, petalite, and lepidolite and secondly from Lithium salts like Lithium hydroxide, Li carbonates and Li chlorides which are highly available in lakes across the Andes mountains.
Parts of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile form the Lithium triangle with large proportion of world’s Lithium reserves. However, an nationalization drive over these reserves seems to proliferate in the Latin American countries, akin to what took place vis-à-vis oil sector with the formation of OPEC in the 1960s introducing new complexities on global supply chains.
Then there is also research going on Absorption type aluminium based direct Lithium extraction, which can reduce water drainage, but such methods are at low Technical Readiness levels (TRL)
Finding a way around the ‘White Gold’:
These dynamics have compelled governments and automakers to look at alternatives to Lithium. Some of the alternate EV battery technologies considered are as follows:
| Battery Technology | Anode Active Material (AAM) | Cathode Active Material (CAM) | Electrolyte |
| Sodium Ion Battery (SIB) | Hard as well as soft Carbon easily available from Crop residue or Agri waste | Sodium ions such as layered oxides | Salts such as sodium hexafluorophosphate (NapF6) |
| Zinc manganese Dioxide battery | Zinc metal, 80% of which globally available is from recycled products | Oxygen from air | Aqueous solution of Potassium hydroxide
(KOH) |
| Aluminium-Air battery | Solid Aluminium metal | Oxygen from air | High pH solution of KOH, NaOH or even NaCl. |
| Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) | Hydrogen gas | Oxygen from air | KOH or NaOH |
The metals other than Lithium that are mostly used in metal ion or metal air batteries are widely available but TRLs of 7-9 as required for commercial EVs are yet not achievable with these technologies. However, technologies like Al-air batteries are inducted in other applications like medical devices. Metal air batteries have higher energy density and lower cost than LIBs but have persistent design challenges.
Batteries with solid electrolytes called solid state batteries are looked upon with high optimism even with low TRLs. Electrolytes used in them are mostly oxides, sulphides or polymer electrolytes.
While HFCs are in use commercially, but their production methods remain debatable. Production of hydrogen through electrolysis of water called green hydrogen is still limited compared to blue hydrogen (produced from methane) and grey hydrogen (produced from capturing hydrogen from fossil fuel).
Reducing Dependence through Recycling
A major source of Raw material extraction is Urban mining, which involves extracting valuable materials from E-Waste contributing to a circular economy. According to Global E-waste monitor, we might see E-waste production levels of 82 million tonnes globally by 2030 providing huge recycling potential. Although inefficient recycling mechanisms hinder urban mining potential. A systematic process of collecting, sorting and dismantling E-waste followed by methods like Pyrometallurgy (Smelting), Hydrometallurgy (Chemical separation) and Biometallurgy (Biological separation) must be integrated at ground level.
It is to be remarked that Alternative battery solutions won’t reduce the share of LIBs and LFPs in EVs immediately just as EVs won’t suddenly replace ICEs on roads. A coordinated strategy working on conventional sources while building resilience through alternatives is the need of the hour for a just climate transition.
